The capture of Ramadi which by all accounts took place mostly because of a non-tactical withdrawal! Which seems to be a favourite tactics of Iraqi field commanders.
In response the Shia Militias who have been mobilised to respond they have been instrumental in halting and turning the tide of ISIS successes since last year. The Iranian defence minister also has flown to Baghdad , Iranians have been engaged against the ISIS from the beginning with men and equipment and its guaranteed that they will put additional resources into the upcoming battle to recapture Ramadi.
ISIS seems to be experiencing difficulties firstly with its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi rumoured to have been injured in an air strike and replaced by Abu Alaa al-Afri a senior official, though a recent tape recording released at least means he is a live.
Secondly the loss of control of Tikrit and %30 of the territories largely thanks to the effort of Shia militias with assistance from Iran in secret coordination with USA through Iraqi channels.
- Does the west really want the complete defeat of ISIS?
- Where would all the militants go?
Perpetual low level war in Syria and Iraq seems to be a solution to the second and answers the first question also.
- ISIS claim responsibility for the TEXAS shooting.
This of course is in line with their focused PR activity which they have proven themselves to be very good at, and they are not the first group to claim responsibility for a very loosely connected event to increase their share of the market in terror.
The core strength of a group such as ISIS is ideological approach it uses to motivate its forces .Let’s face it eternal life and place in heaven not to mention 70 virgin and the rest must seem very attractive if you have already accepted the extreme religious narrative and the simple answers it provides to very complex questions in life.
To weaken and challenge this ideology you must start at the same stating line as them simply put in places of warship, religiously funded and attended academic establishments ,public education system and in the media especially the digital sphere.
Guns and soldiers in the order of battle against such groups are the last line of defence. As by the time they are used we may have already lost so much ground that we would effectively be fighting on the last foot.
Many rumours are around about collusion of western intelligence services and their allies regarding funding and arming of such groups. The simplest and safest assumption given the nature of such service is that most of them are true as they work and operate in an interlinked maze of deceit and intrigue.
There are already good evidence that a Nato member Turkey has been a key supplier and transit route for supply of weapons and cash. Look deeper and many allies of West in the Middle East can also be implicated in this mess.
So far the only effects of ISIS in the other places beside in the Middle East has been additional security measure and a presented reason for all the intrusive surveillance that the public has become subjected to.
The possibilities of a genuine attack by ISIS in Europe and further a filed is still high but so far beside threats and occasional beheadings and murder to underscore the projection of fear not much is evident .