Posts

Execution
The recent execution of another innocent man by ISIS is more than just a display of brutality for its own sake and the pronounced demand from USA to cease its air campaign.

This act is as old as the warfare itself it is one of the oldest weapons to use against your enemy its the weapon of fear . Its aim is to underscore its strength with sheer brutality and to ignite within the recipient of the message one of the key emotional triggers that all humans share” Fear”.

Among its audience are all sections of our society our political leaders, our selves and maliciously the very fabric of our multicultural societies in the west.

Its aim is not to deter an attack but the opposite It is designed to enrage and engage us violently.

It at once makes us aware of our differences and makes us frighten of each other.

There are no easy way out of this scenario it demands of USA and its western allies to challenge their long held friendships with Saudi Arabia, Qatar among others. Can the west turn a blind eye as it did during its war with the Taliban and allow its Arab allies to fund and support its enemies on the ground in order to maintain social cohesion in their own country.
The recent meetings with Arab leaders by John Kerry will do very little to inhibit their support in real terms .

The Nato member Turkey is by no means innocent in this matter and its sees its involvement in Syria and Iraq as a part of strategic positioning to become a regional power broker. (it has been a major supporter of militias and armed opposition of all shades in particular the fundamentalist groups )

Iran’s role as regional power and the first to send in supplies and specialist and ground attack air crafts to fight ISIS and collaborate with USA albeit secretly must give a hint as to where future meaningful engagement should lie .

The politicians in the west need to learn to look fear in the face and make difficult decision . That there are no alternatives to boots on the ground and that a revision of its alliances in the region is inevitable as in the case of Assad, if ISIS is to be defeated then Assad needs to be treated as an ally in this campaign for it is in Syria that this war will be lost or won not in Iraq.

ISIS flag

  David Haines  the British aid worker has become the latest person to be executed by ISIS. This  has been promised to be followed by the execution of another hostage who has been named as Mr Henning.

Hains had served in the Royal Air Force for 12 years and leaves two children behind. He had worked as a Aid worker in some of most troubled areas in the world including Libya,Sudan.

The proclaimed aim of this act is to stop USA bombing of ISIS positions which have slowed the groups advance in Iraq.

ISIS regularly treats it brutality as a PR opportunity in it campaign of terror .

 

Current threat level

The current threat level from international terrorism for the UK is assessed as SEVERE.

Members of the public should always remain alert to the danger of terrorism and report any suspicious activity to the police on 999 or the anti-terrorist hotline: 0800 789 321.

The threat-levels

There are five levels of threat:

  • Critical – an attack is expected imminently.
  • Severe – an attack is highly likely.
  • Substantial – an attack is a strong possibility.
  • Moderate – an attack is possible but not likely.
  • Low – an attack is unlikely.

Source and form of the threat

The threat of international terrorism comes from a diverse range of sources, including Al Qaida and associated networks, and those who share Al Qaida’s ideology but do not have direct contact with them. A threat could manifest itself from a lone individual or group.

sources :MI5 ,Home office.

With upcoming Nato summit in Cardiff Wales on 4th Sep and the stiffening of attitude against ISIS the UK’s international threat level has officially been increased to substantial that indicates a  strong possibility of an attack.

The concerns have been underscored by the recent showing of a Jihadi recruitment video featuring Nasser Muthana, and his younger brother Aseel both from Cardiff. The young brothers travelled secretly to Join ISIS.

In Cardiff what has been referred to as a ring of steel has been set up featuring Hostile Vehicle Mitigation a counter measure against vehicle borne threats , a steel fence measuring 2.5 kilometres surrounding Cardiff Castle which is site of the Nato Summit and a 1000 meter fence around Cardiff bay .

With up to 28 heads of states, foreign ministers and defence chiefs expected it can be seen why the event is a potential target for any group seeking maximum impact from terror operation.

The summit will be the place where recent developments to ISIS is discussed and responses developed this will also be the occasion where USA will directly put pressure on its allies to participate in short and long term strategies against global Jihadi movement led increasingly by ISIS.

 

Iraq back on the agenda

Despite great deal of national reluctance to participate in military adventure overseas the western governments find themselves with new challenges in Iraq.

After over 4000 dead and 32000 injured many suffering lifelong injuries, the Americans are understandably hesitant added to this is their political differences with the present Iraqi regime.

Despite all this Americans have started delivering humanitarian aid delivery via air drops and targeted bombing of ISIS positions .This has been explained as an effort to stop a potential genocide. Assessments indicate that the USA action is in fact in support of their Kurdish Allies in Iraq. USA has publicly drawn a red line for ISIS by stating That ARBIL the capital of Kurdish semi-autonomous area which houses American diplomats will be defended. This is also a to block IRAN in building up its relationship with the Kurdish ruling class.

ISIS is the latest manifestation of militant hard line Islamic movement who derive their beliefs from the WAHABI and SALAFI sects that originate from Saudi Arabia. 22.9% of all Saudis are SALAFI with the majority of the rest being WAHABI  also  46.87% of Qataris consider them selves to be SALAFI  . These two countries are  reputed by observers  to be the major donors and supporters of the ISIS.

There lies the major challenge for the west in particular USA who will inevitably will find itself on the opposite side to some of their allies in the Middle East. One of the challenges that this creates for USA is in the important field of public information as it finds itself where it cannot publically identify and react to the main sponsors of ISIS. In sharp contracts to their position and actions over UKRINE

The event in Iraq also bring about the behind the scene collaborations between IRAN and USA as IRAN has already been involved in fighting ISIS using air power and special forces.

ISIS is increasingly seen as a more radical substitute to Al-Qaeda and having taken territories in SYRIA and IRAQ it is also seen by radical all over as a successful force and a preferred option to join.

Iraq’s own future as a unified state seems to be hanging on a knife edge and many observers view the possibility of it being divided along religious and ethnic lines as real possibility.

This is seen by many as a far better option than a single failed state.

One thing is for sure while IRAQ drama plays out the new participant ISIS will play an increasingly prominent role as a brutal new comer.

With the news of additional gains by ISIS in Iraq one is reminded of the fact that the organisation is barely 3 years old and yet it has managed to occupy a vast territory in Iraq rapidly.

Recently the Kurdish fighters arrested a well-placed individual and obtained information from him that led to a large number of flash drives on which existed financial information that gave indications about ISIS operating budget, the sum indicated was over £750 million pounds this in addition to the value of equipment confiscated that puts the war chest value at just over £1.5 billion.

While such groups have traditionally struggled for finance and this has reduced their ability to obtain sophisticated weaponry such as latest shoulder or vehicle launch anti-aircraft missiles, this clearly is not an issue for ISIS. The recent controversy regarding British air ways flight path over Iraq is caused by these issues.

The other problem is the large number of educated European based extremist that have joined this group in their campaigns in Syria and Iraq has given a great deal of concern to security services in UK as to potential threats inherent upon the return of these individuals to the country.

The concerns are added to by the brutality the ISIS have displayed to all that oppose them

To many ISIS has replaced Al-Qaeda as future threat, what is certain that security forces everywhere are watching the development with great interests