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Turkey

Turkey

Turkey

The attack on New Year’s Eve in Istanbul was yet another example of how having 1000s of armed police in uniform and under cover through out a Metropolitan area will have no effect on the outcome.

The chances of intercepting an attack in its final phase are mostly based on luck rather than methods.

Much remains to be answered but it these are clear so far , one attacker , armed with assault rifle which from the footage was an AK 47 . Standard magazine size taken into account and initial forensic indicating 120 shots fired shows he changed magazines a number of times .

Witness statements indicate he shot from the hip and directly into people who had taken cover by laying on the ground , he maintained his attack for 7 minutes and then changed his outer clothing in the kitchen and walked off during the chaos after the attack.
Cold , calculated , experienced and motivated is the summery of this attacker one that no security service wants on its turf, but not a suicide attacker he had planned to walk out and he did.

He has been identified by finger prints as being Lakhe Mashrapov from the Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan. he had been in the country since November with is family.
It’s highly unlikely that this was a random attack, the cell he has been associated with have already been linked to the airport bombing few month earlier.

But these are details that suit an investigator , our concern must be focused on the similar attacks and the likely hood of them happening where we are . We must also assess if basic measures we are being offered will suffice to stop an attack . Armed police are mostly for reassuring the public as any attacker is unlikely to want to have a shoot out with police , they are looking for soft targets and maximum impact ,the least protected the target better and that ,means 99.9% of public spaces .
So far in United kingdom we must accept the security services have done their job and hope that they continue to do so. There has had to be a lot of retuning and learning as the traditional enemies of the state in UK played with different rules compering to the new likely suspects.

Taking into account that Turkey’s geo position at this moment in history could not be more difficult added to this is its own entangled involvement in many fronts with the participants of the civil war in Syria.
It has also seen a complete purge of some of its security apparatus due to the recent bloody coup and its aftermath .
There are many hands in play in Turkey , the state of play is confusing and the players maintain their own positions at any cost.

There has been many recent attacks in Turkey with casualties running into hundreds, with many different motives from dissatisfied Kurds to various militant groups and some even accuse the state in being behind some attacks.
The only plausible defence is good intelligence and the ability to act in timely and desired manner but given the complexities in Turkey that may be a pie in the sky and beyond reach of the man in charge .

isel flag

Call it by its name! ISIS,ISEL,Dayesh ?

Call it by its name!

The ongoing issue of what to call ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria), ISEL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant)or Dayesh (Arabic name “in the plural form ‘Dayesh’  means bigots who impose their views on others.”  )

Dayesh is the name used in the region to describe this organisation , it was also adopted by US military, French government and Australians. The British and many international news media however seem to be reluctant to use this and insist on using the various version that include Islamic and state as adjectives!

However we are beginning to see in UK first signs from the governmental level in the way the organisation is referred to.

This change of approach is the first sign of multi-level approach to counter the organisation who are very media aware and effective in manipulating press and social media.

For this approach to work the international media and social media organisations need to play their parts.

More importantly the governments need to be clear where the traditional source of support and finance have been for this organisation and bring to bear pressures and more importantly make hard choices as to who to formulate new alliances with in the region the USA seem to have made some choice on this level by their tentative conversation with the Iranians who were one of the first in the region to confront this organisation and its brothers in arm.

The public campaign that must be waged has to start with naming the source of the ideology that has been the driving force behind this terrorist organisation which are the  Wahhabi and Salafi sects of Islam which are the dominant and state sponsored in Saudi Arabia and some of the small states in the Persian gulf region .

Poorang

female fighters of pkk

Female fighter v ISIS

In a twist of fate befitting a Shakespearian play the ISIS fighters are finding themselves confronted by fighters from a gender they want to dominate and control and dispossess of their basic human rights. Female fighters of PKK have joined the ranks of Kurdish fighters on the front line.

Given their experience in fighting in Syria against the fundamentalist Muslim groups and long history in fighting the Turkish army in difficult terrains the Female fighter of PKK will be more than a match for ISIS .

PKK has many females in its ranks who no doubt will take special joy in fighting the ISIS given that organisations recent abductions ,murder and enslavement of females in territories they have recently captured no to mention the organisations narrow interpretation of female role in society  The PKK is a secular political  movement with decades of experience in fighting superior forces .

photo curtsey of IKJ news

ISIS group

The rise of ISIS

With the news of additional gains by ISIS in Iraq one is reminded of the fact that the organisation is barely 3 years old and yet it has managed to occupy a vast territory in Iraq rapidly.

Recently the Kurdish fighters arrested a well-placed individual and obtained information from him that led to a large number of flash drives on which existed financial information that gave indications about ISIS operating budget, the sum indicated was over £750 million pounds this in addition to the value of equipment confiscated that puts the war chest value at just over £1.5 billion.

While such groups have traditionally struggled for finance and this has reduced their ability to obtain sophisticated weaponry such as latest shoulder or vehicle launch anti-aircraft missiles, this clearly is not an issue for ISIS. The recent controversy regarding British air ways flight path over Iraq is caused by these issues.

The other problem is the large number of educated European based extremist that have joined this group in their campaigns in Syria and Iraq has given a great deal of concern to security services in UK as to potential threats inherent upon the return of these individuals to the country.

The concerns are added to by the brutality the ISIS have displayed to all that oppose them

To many ISIS has replaced Al-Qaeda as future threat, what is certain that security forces everywhere are watching the development with great interests