UK Security dilemma
Russian standpoint in Ukraine and Baltic, the handover of all operations in Afghanistan to local forces and a renewed campaign in Iraq to counter ISIS not mention the deteriorating situation in Libya and Syria have all joined forces to create a challenging scenario for security and policy-makers in UK.
The Russian have made themselves very clear with regards to their redline and have shown the ability to move swiftly and decisively both militarily and politically in defence of their position with regards to Nato’s eastward spread and changing alliances of their former republics.
In Afghanistan UK has to play the waiting game to see if the local forces can maintain stability and hold their positions and to see if the proxies of its allies in the region namely Pakistan can reign in its military’s desire to keep its own clients in the fight.
In Syria the confusing and misguided initial approach in supporting the oppositions before allowing the lessons in Libya to be learnt have created an intense civil war that has acted as feeding ground for a number of terrorist organisation such as ISIS who have created huge problems of their own for the world and in particular in the neighbouring countries.
Libya has transcended in to chaos of various armed militia controlling land, assets and confronting two different governments looking to international recognition.
Sub-Sahara has become a new focal point for violent Islamic radicalism spreading into West African countries such as Nigeria, Mali and others.
The Saudi military adventurism in Yemen along with a few paid for allies has add to this heady mixture of interwoven issues.
The growing refugee crises in the Mediterranean is just a small by product of the above though a tragic one.
The UK position is further complicated by alliances and existing commitments. The fact that must be kept in sharp focus is that UK mainland security is very much dependant on dealing with the underlying causes of these issues.
The questions that need to be asked are these.
Is short term military adventurism driven by political PR opportunity worth the consequences?
Do we have the right allies in the Middle East or is it time to apply some realpolitik in making new friends?
How much of the responsibility the West have to bear for the rise of Islamic extremism?
To befriend the Russian bear or provoke it?
These are just some of the UK Security dilemma facing UK.